Artikkelit

18.09.2024

China s Artificial Intelligence strategy at a crossroads – Global leadership or eternal runner-up?

AI plays central role in Chinese S&T developmental thinking. With the help of generous public funding, massive population (i.e. available data) and investments in AI education, China has in many respects become the global trendsetter. Yet, China’s ambitions to take over the U.S. in all spheres of development still faces many hurdles.

Science and technology play a crucial role in China’s developmental plans. Xi Jinping himself has asserted that: “Advanced technology is the sharp weapon of the modern state. An important reason that Western countries were able to hold sway over the world in modern times was that they held the advanced technology”. In Chinese S&T policy planning, artificial intelligence (AI) is, and has already for a long time been one of the core technologies marked for priority support. First plans covering the field were carved out already in early 2000s. In the 2016 Five-Year Plan, AI was designated as one of the central strategic fields for development. Following this, a so-called New Generation AI Development Plan was unveiled the following year. The sector’s importance was once again reaffirmed in the most recent Five-Year Plan extending to 2025, in which it is designated as one the so-called “frontier industries” of development. According to the more detailed 2017 plan, China aims at becoming the world's 'major AI innovation centre' by 2030, and to expand the use of AI in many spheres of life such as governance, public safety and defence. Especially the public safety and military aspects of AI use in China have caused concerned abroad. It is known China is seeking to use AI for tasks such as missile guidance, target detection, and even hybrid warfare by using AI to manipulate public opinion. AI-backed facial recognition, meanwhile, is used to monitor, control and repress China’s ethnic minorities.

At the center of China’s plans are investments in new infrastructure and in supporting structures to bring AI actors together. The vision includes establishing national data hubs and innovation centers, developing foundational AI models, and integrating computational resources nationwide. The end goal is to make AI services as accessible and affordable everyday utilities. Indeed, a significant departure from many competitors´ approach, China seeks to enhance also its manufacturing capabilities with the use of AI rather than focusing solely on virtual sectors like software and internet services. China is also actively – some argue aggressively – seeking to build a global AI ecosystem with China at its helm. As part of China’s so-called Belt and Road Initiative, cities around the world are being hardwired with Chinese AI systems at an increasing pace. The critical approach asserts that if China is responsible for global AI systems, their standards will be much better positioned when multilateral agreements on AI governance are being negotiated. Indeed, this assertion seems to be backed up at the fact, that for the time being, China seems to be pushing for a proliferation-first approach when it comes to global AI governance.

Due to lack of reliable data, financial figures on public expenditure on AI in China are only very rough estimates. Yet, it is evident, that huge sums of money have been allocated to the development of the sector. Funds have mainly been funneled to advanced and applied research, but the private sector also receives funding through state-backed venture capitals. In terms of different sub-sectors, funds have especially been allocated for AI research related to facial recognition, biotechnology, quantum computing, medical intelligence, and autonomous vehicles. In addition to funding, the inclusion of AI in all levels of education, the size of China’s population and the domestic market, the help received from the Chinese diaspora and the lack of clear privacy regulation, which in turn has made the collection of mass data easy, have further helped China’s ambitions. As a result, it is evident China is making clear headway in the development of its AI capabilities. Already by 2020 China was leading the world in terms of the number of AI research papers and patents. According to a Stanford University report  in 2022, a whopping 61 percent of all AI patents globally came from China. Quality of research publications has also risen considerably. AI has also been widely put into use in Chinese work organizations. According to a recent survey, 83% of Chinese organizations utilize AI. In comparison, in the United States the figure is 65%. Meanwhile almost half of the top AI researchers globally nowadays have received their undergraduate degree from China.

Despite the advances, the U.S. still leads the race for global AI supremacy. China’s current role as the first runner-up is not enough for the CCP leadership. The ambition to take over the lead is not without challenges, however. Firstly, although the private sector, laboratories in universities, and the people’s liberation army are working collaboratively, China’s AI development plans are still far from forming a cohesive, integrated approach, as there is considerable lack of cooperation and synergy between different actors across and tech layers. Secondly, despite the headway China has made, and the increasing willingness and capability for self-reliance in AI technology, China still needs international cooperation and know-how. Yet, as the strategic superpower rivalry centers on new technologies, the aforementioned use of AI technologies for military purposes and internal repression has alienated many traditional partners, and the resulting decoupling is threatening the links China’s AI sector has relied for a long time. Already the 2017 AI plan acknowledged the progressive erosion of these interdependencies. Although China has managed to circumvent some of the problems posed by Western partners’ retreat from cooperation by pursuing integration with global innovation networks elsewhere where it is possible and advantageous, it remains to be seen whether China can achieve the necessary technological breakthroughs without the help of willing Western partners. Finally, and perhaps fatally China's promotion of AI through public policies takes place against and within the overall framework of political monopoly of CCP and China’s economic developmental plans. Political orthodoxy is always prioritized, and the resulting tight political control and censorship may hinder the necessary innovation, talent acquisition, and open scientific exchange of ideas.

For China, the next few years will be crucial as countries are realigning themselves with the changing realities of big-power competition and the international rules and norms of AI governance are carved out. Regardless of where exactly China finds itself in the end, there is no doubt that China will still play a major role in global AI developments. In order to understand China’s advancements in the AI field, continued engagement with China is necessary on a political level, albeit there are justified concerns about the ethical use of AI in China to refrain from deep technical cooperation. 

AI use in China is prolific. It is used, among other things, to control, maintain and schedule China’s vast network of high-speed trains. Photo: Olli Suominen.